Predicting Our Future

The Future of Humanity

Making predictions is often difficult, especially about the future.

– Niels Bohr

We’ve never been very good at predicting the future, especially in the areas of technological innovation and human progress. Even the experts – the visionaries among us – have been far off the mark in seeing what’s coming down the road. Consider the following predictions that turned out to be less than insightful:

·         “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” – Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949

·         “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

·         “640K ought to be enough for anybody.” – Bill Gates, 1981

·         “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” – Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

·         “Louis Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.” – Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872

·         “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” – Western Union internal memo, 1876

·         “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?” – David Sarnoff’s associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s

·         “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility.” – LeeDeForest, inventor

·         “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.” – Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895

·         “Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.” – Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre

·         “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” – Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929

·         “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” – Albert Einstein, 1932

·         “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” – Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899

Why such shortsightedness, even among experts in their respective fields?  I think that people get locked into the time in which they live, which makes it difficult for many to see how things could be in the future. Just look at science fiction, like that of Jules Verne, for example. Verne wrote about submarines, nuclear power, and space travel, and other wonders unbelievable during his time. Much of it, however, came to be. I look at current science fiction, like Star Wars and Star Trek, and I’m fairly confident that much of the far out technology, like interstellar travel and human teleportation, will come to pass. With the way technology is currently accelerating, I believe that humans – and eventually our descendants – will be able to do things that we currently can only dream of.